Formation and Evolution of Online Communities—Twitter, note, Mastodon, and AT Protocol

The growth of online platforms follows a certain pattern. Initially, there is a rapid influx of users, leading to an explosion of posts and interactions. However, this excitement does not last forever; over time, it settles down, and a period of relative stagnation and boredom follows.

This cycle is repeated in almost every online community. However, Twitter managed to overcome this stagnation and successfully evolved from a mere "platform" into a full-fledged social "media."

Twitter’s Turning Point—The Transformation Brought by the Great East Japan Earthquake

Twitter transcended linguistic barriers and became widely used in Japan, establishing itself as a short-text posting site that anyone could use. The key turning point in this process was the Great East Japan Earthquake.

Before the disaster, NHK and Niconico Douga were exploring the idea of integrating broadcasting and the internet, but its feasibility was uncertain. Then came the earthquake, and Twitter suddenly emerged at the forefront as an information transmission infrastructure. The internet was no longer just a subcultural space—it had evolved into a media entity in its own right.

The Evolution of note—From Stagnation to a Full-Fledged Platform

note.com (formerly note.mu) followed a typical startup growth curve. While it initially gained traction, it soon entered a period of stagnation. However, four to five years after its launch, Takayuki Fukatsu stepped into the spotlight, strengthening its monetization system. As a result, a culture of "writing on note" was established, solidifying its position as a platform for creators.

The Impact of Mastodon—An Era Where Anyone Can DIY Their Own Twitter

Following this, Mastodon gained significant attention.

The revolutionary aspect of Mastodon was that it introduced the realization that "one could build a Twitter-like SNS through DIY." When mixi was popular, there was an open-source project called "OpenPNE" that allowed users to create mixi clones. However, it was merely a replica and never developed into a major movement.

In contrast, Mastodon introduced the concept of federation, which set it apart from simply being a Twitter clone. By doing so, it presented the new possibility of decentralized SNS, rather than merely imitating an existing model.

The Potential of AT Protocol—"ATmosphere" and Data Portability

Now, attention is shifting to AT Protocol (Atproto).

The innovative aspect of AT Protocol lies in its use of a common syntax, allowing various applications to interconnect and form an ecosystem. Since last year, the concept of "ATmosphere" has been emphasized, and third-party development has become increasingly active. As long as developers maintain their enthusiasm, this system has significant room for growth.

However, the true strength of AT Protocol is that it enables users to retain control of their data under a single ID, regardless of the app they use. That said, if data cannot be seamlessly shared across different applications, this advantage is significantly diminished.

Ideally, leveraging the common data structure to enable cross-app browsing and editing would lead to the emergence of super apps or billboard-like mechanisms that provide an overview of information. If such developments take place, the ATmosphere ecosystem will become even more dynamic.

Depending on how things unfold, AT Protocol may evolve beyond being just a protocol and emerge as the foundational infrastructure of the next-generation internet.